From Uchenna Ezeadigwe
Awka
The Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI),under the Strengthening Electoral Accountability Project(SEAP)
supported by the FCDO/PACE program have initiated an election data Room and outlined key trends risks and opportunities for ensuring credible amd violent free polls in Anambra state Governorship election.
News Echo reports that KDI has been closely monitoring the electoral environment in Anambra State through data-driven research, stakeholder engagement, and on-ground observation under our Nigeria Election Violence Education and Resolution (NEVER) project as part of our commitment to advancing democratic integrity, transparency, and peaceful participation.
Speaking at the Pre election press statement by KDI on the 2025 off cycle Governorship Election, Executive Director, Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), Bukola ldowu disclosed that KDI pre-election assessment highlights key trends, risks, and opportunities for ensuring credible and violence-free polls such as Declining Voter Turnout which has fallen by over 58%in the last eight years, despite consistent growth in voter registration. KDI’s findings suggest that other factors contribute to the low participation in Anambra North, including logistical and geographical challenges. Some local governments in the district, such as Anambra East, Anambra West, and Ogbaru, are largely riverine and made up of hard-to-reach communities,with a higher voter-to-polling-unit ratio than other districts.
INEC Preparedness; while the Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) has
demonstrated logistical readiness, some operational gaps persist. KDI’s comparative analysis of INEC’s preparednessfor the 2025 Anambra Governorship Election against the 2024 Ondo Off-Cycle Election reveals a mixed outlook on operational readiness. The training of ad-hoc officials concluded only on November 6,2025, two days before the election, compared to a timelier completion in Ondo 2024 left no room for mock drills or refresher sessions, limiting INEC’s ability to evaluate the competence of ad-hoc personnel and replace unfit or unavailable staff ahead of election day.
Nonetheless, INEC’s continuous engagement with stakeholders and improvements in technology usage, particularly through the BVAS and IREV platforms, remain positive indicators
that, if effectively managed, can mitigate these risks and enhance the credibility of the process.
Logistics Concerns; the endorsement of the incumbent governor by the Joint Transporter Forum, comprising NURTW, RTEAN, Keke, Okada, and Bus Unions, raises a significant logistical red flag. Since INEC relies heavily on these unions for material transportation, their partisan alignment could undermine perceptions of neutrality, risk delays, and erode public confidence in the process.
Election Security and Hotspot Mapping: KDI’s Hotspot Mapping Analysis for the 2025 Anambra Governorship Election indicates that while the overall security risk across the state remains moderate, several localized flashpoints persist in areas historically prone to electoral tension, political rivalry, and voter intimidation.
The analysis identifies Aguata and Ihiala as severe-risk areas, with a high likelihood of violence or disruption on election day. Nnewi North, Nnewi South, and Ogbaru are categorized as high-risk LGAs, while the remaining local governments are assessed as being at a moderate risk level. In practical terms ,this means that LGAs classified as severe or high risk face a greater probability of experiencing election-related disturbances, ranging from logistical delays and voter suppression to violent clashes, unless proactive measures are taken. Conversely, moderate-risk areas could be relatively peaceful, provided preventive actions are maintained and early warning signals are properly addressed. KDl therefore urges security agencies to uphold professionalism, neutrality, and restraint in their election-day operations. Security deployments should prioritize visible but non intimidating presence in identified flashpoints, timely intelligence sharing, and rapid response coordination to ensure the safety of voters, election officials, and materials across all 21 LGAs.
KDI however, emphaises for a credible election that will be based on credibility transparency and fairness, by political actors and supporters while assuring that there will be a continued monitoring, pre assessment of election and post election statements.
